Pharma BD Deal Intelligence
A $1.7B acquisition for a NASH drug that had already flunked its Phase 2b primary endpoint before the deal even closed. Cenicriviroc's Phase 3 follow-up failed too—no statistically significant benefit over placebo—leaving Allergan (later absorbed into AbbVie) with zero revenue from the asset.
Allergan paid ~$1.7B for a NASH drug that had already flunked its Phase IIb primary endpoint two months earlier — and it went on to fail Phase III too, generating zero revenue.
Full analysis, sources & comparables →Allergan to acquire Tobira, adding global rights to cenicriviroc and evogliptin and positioning the company in a leading R&D position in NASH, expected to…
Controversy over Allergan's 500% premium for Tobira looks overdone; Allergan likely has access to upcoming Phase IIb NASH data the Street had not seen, and the…
AURORA Phase 3 confirmed cenicriviroc lacked efficacy on fibrosis improvement vs placebo at 12 months, ending the dual CCR2/CCR5 thesis in NASH.
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Allergan agreed to acquire Tobira Therapeutics for $28.35/share cash upfront plus up to $49.84/share in CVRs tied to development, regulatory, and commercial milestones (~$1.695B total potential). Adds Phase 3-ready cenicriviroc (dual CCR2/CCR5 antagonist) and evogliptin to Allergan's GI/NASH pipeline. Tender offer expired October 31, 2016. Cenicriviroc later failed Phase 3 AURORA in 2020.
Allergan paid ~$1.7B for a NASH drug that had already flunked its Phase IIb primary endpoint two months earlier — and it went on to fail Phase III too, generating zero revenue.
Assessment window: 5yr post-close.
NASH (now MASH) is the progressive inflammatory form of fatty liver disease, affecting an estimated 3-12 million US adults and driven by obesity, type-2 diabetes, and metabolic syndrome. Without intervention it advances through fibrosis to cirrhosis, making it a fast-rising cause of liver transplantation.
When Allergan acquired Tobira in September 2016 for ~$1.695B, NASH was the most-hyped metabolic disease space in pharma, with Intercept's obeticholic acid (REGENERATE), Genfit's elafibranor (RESOLVE-IT), and Gilead's selonsertib (STELLAR) all racing toward Phase 3. Cenicriviroc (CVC), a dual CCR2/CCR5 antagonist with antifibrotic mechanism, had read out a positive Phase 2b CENTAUR study and was the only late-stage immunomodulatory option. The Phase 3 AURORA trial enrolled ~2,000 patients but was terminated for futility in 2020-202100273-2/fulltext). Every late-stage NASH program from that era ultimately failed: obeticholic acid (FDA CRL 2020 and 2023), elafibranor (FDA CRL 2024 in NASH; later approved for PBC), selonsertib, aramchol. The space was finally cracked by Madrigal's Rezdiffra (resmetirom, FDA-approved March 2024) — the first MASH therapy. The Tobira deal is now a textbook NASH-cycle write-down, contributing to AbbVie's later impairment charges after acquiring Allergan in 2020.
| Deal | Year | Value | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Allergan plc / Tobira Therapeutics, Inc. (this deal) | 2016 | $1.7B | 17 |
| Allergan plc / Merck & Co., Inc. (CGRP receptor antagonist program) | 2015 | $250M | 91 |
| Allergan plc / SkinMedica, Inc. | 2012 | $375M | 55 |
| Allergan plc / Inamed Corporation | 2005 | $3.2B | 50 |
| Allergan plc / Oculeve, Inc. | 2015 | $250M | 33 |
| Allergan plc / Zeltiq Aesthetics, Inc. | 2017 | $2.5B | 32 |
| Allergan plc / Kythera Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. | 2015 | $2.1B | 23 |
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